Asking vs Closed Prices in Tel Aviv: The Spread
The asking-vs-closed spread measures how far current asking prices per square metre sit above or below recently registered sale prices in the same Tel Aviv-Yafo neighborhood. As of July 2026 it runs from +8.93% in Jaffa / Noga to -26.09% in Ramat HaHayal, across the 11 neighborhoods where both samples reach n ≥ 20.
What the spread is
Every listing carries an asking price, but the price that matters is the one deals actually close at. Israel registers every residential transaction on nadlan.gov.il, which lets us put the two side by side: the median asking ₪/sqm from our current snapshot of tracked active listings, against the median closed ₪/sqm from registered deals in the same neighborhood. Spread = (asking − closed) ÷ closed × 100. A positive spread means sellers are currently asking above what the registry shows was recently paid; a negative spread means asking sits below recent recorded sales. To our knowledge, nobody else publishes this join for Tel Aviv in English, with sample sizes, every month.
The spread table, July 2026
| Neighborhood | Spread | Asking ₪/sqm | Closed ₪/sqm | n asking | n closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaffa / Noga (שכונת יפו\נגה) | +8.93% | ₪47,726 | ₪43,815 | 22 | 46 |
| Neve Tzedek (נווה צדק) | +6.16% | ₪75,000 | ₪70,648 | 89 | 54 |
| Ramat Aviv (רמת אביב) | -4.86% | ₪47,034 | ₪49,438 | 82 | 105 |
| Kerem HaTeimanim (כרם התימנים) | -6.42% | ₪72,605 | ₪77,587 | 98 | 60 |
| City Center (לב העיר) | -7.81% | ₪57,143 | ₪61,982 | 178 | 165 |
| American-German Colony / Sarona (המושבה האמריקאית-גרמנית\שרונה) | -7.89% | ₪52,632 | ₪57,143 | 51 | 405 |
| Old North (הצפון הישן) | -17.29% | ₪55,000 | ₪66,494 | 265 | 48 |
| New North (הצפון החדש) | -17.65% | ₪58,929 | ₪71,560 | 304 | 69 |
| Florentin (פלורנטין) | -20% | ₪50,000 | ₪62,500 | 117 | 36 |
| Bavli (בבלי) | -20.25% | ₪54,375 | ₪68,182 | 107 | 55 |
| Ramat HaHayal (רמת החייל) | -26.09% | ₪26,105 | ₪35,321 | 39 | 57 |
Asking = tracked active listings snapshot July 2026; closed = registered nadlan.gov.il deals January 2023–May 2026. Published only where both n ≥ 20; below-gate neighborhoods are suppressed, never estimated.
How to read a positive or negative spread
Read the spread as context, not a discount coupon. The asking side is a snapshot of what is listed today; the closed side is a trailing window of what recently sold. The two pools can differ in apartment size, floor, condition, and street — so a negative spread does not prove prices are falling, and a positive one does not prove they are rising. What the spread does reliably show is how seller expectations in a neighborhood sit relative to the recorded reality of its market, on a like-unit (per-sqm) basis, with the sample sizes printed. Currently 9 of 11 published neighborhoods show asking below recent recorded sales.
Why we compute it
Most English-language commentary on Tel Aviv prices quotes asking prices only, because asking data is easy and closed data is buried in a Hebrew government registry. That overstates the market a buyer actually faces. Joining the two sides — transparently, with a published method and an n ≥ 20 gate on both samples — is the core of The Tel Aviv Property Report Index. The same join powers the per-neighborhood tables on price per square metre by neighborhood and each neighborhood data page.
Frequently asked questions
What is the asking-vs-closed spread in Tel Aviv?
It is the gap between what sellers currently ask and what buyers recently paid, per square metre, in the same neighborhood: (median asking ₪/sqm − median closed ₪/sqm) ÷ median closed ₪/sqm × 100. As of July 2026 we publish it for 11 Tel Aviv-Yafo neighborhoods where both the asking sample and the closed sample reach n ≥ 20, ranging from +8.93% in Jaffa / Noga to -26.09% in Ramat HaHayal.
Why do asking prices sit below closed prices in most neighborhoods?
In 9 of the 11 published neighborhoods the spread is currently negative — median asking ₪/sqm sits below the median of recently registered sales. That is not by itself evidence that prices are falling: the asking side is a current snapshot of the listings we track, while the closed side is a trailing window of recorded deals (January 2023–May 2026), and the mix of apartments listed today (size, floor, condition, street) can differ from the mix that recently sold. We publish both sample sizes with every row so the comparison stays transparent.
Does a negative spread mean I can negotiate that much off?
No. The spread compares two different pools — apartments currently listed versus apartments recently sold — not the asking and closing price of the same apartment. It is a market-level indicator of how asking expectations sit relative to recorded outcomes, published as indicative context, not a negotiation benchmark for any specific property.
Why is my neighborhood not in the table?
We publish the spread only where BOTH sides clear the sample gate: at least 20 tracked active listings AND at least 20 registered transactions. Neighborhoods below either threshold are suppressed rather than shown on thin data. Coverage grows as our tracking deepens and as new registered deals are added — the table moved from 6 to 11 neighborhoods in July 2026 when we deepened the asking side.
Where does the data come from?
The asking side is our own tracking pipeline: a current snapshot (July 2026) of active Tel Aviv-Yafo listings, PII-stripped, deduplicated per listing. The closed side is registered transactions from nadlan.gov.il, the Israeli government transaction registry (January 2023–May 2026). The join, the n ≥ 20 gate, and every caveat are documented on our methodology page.
Where this fits in the market data
The spread is the signature axis of our market coverage. For headline prices see Tel Aviv property prices; for the per-sqm tables with dollar conversions see price per square metre by neighborhood; for listing pace see days on market. The full method is on the methodology page.